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#FreeZumaProtest Update 14 July 2021 12h00

14 July 12h00 By Willie Viljoen, MD Africa Intelligence Solutions


Africa Intelligence Solutions #FreeZumaProtests



In the past 12 hours we observed a decline in looting and protests in the KZN and Gauteng redzone areas. At this time, we calculate a 17% decline. We should see a significant decrease in activity in the next 24 hours should this decline continue. KEEP IN MIND Between Monday and Tuesday there was a significant spike in activity. FACTORS THAT INFLUENCE ACTIVITY The current deployment of SANDF, although very limited, is a major factor that contributes to the decrease in activity. The decrease is also influenced by the poverty factor. Looters who were looting for food only have now mostly stopped as they have filled their food supplies at home. Community protection groups have largely mobilised and vowed to protect their communities. Communication and tracking structures have been created to aid communities and security forces to pre-empt problem areas. Taxi associations have also pledged their support to assist in providing protection to communities and retail infrastructure. The SIU has been tasked to investigate possible instigators who may be fuelling protests and violence. PREDICTION Should this trend continue, we will see a significant decrease in activity within the next 24 hours and activity may mostly cease in the next 48 hours. Should more violence be fuelled by outside factors, this could hamper the decrease in activity. Should any prominent figures make inflammatory statements to fuel this protest, it could also negatively affect the situation.


With KZN showing concerning levels of being more organized, the question is if the province will face sustained instability?


www.africaintel.com


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